Mortgage Rate Forecast: Fewer Fed Cuts Ahead, Rates May Stay Higher for Longer
This week’s update from Yahoo Finance offers a sober outlook on mortgage rates: a meaningful drop may be farther off than many hoped, as the Federal Reserve tempers its expectations for rate cuts in 2025.
According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate now sits around 6.64%, a modest improvement—but still well above pandemic-era lows. Market experts now predict:
- Only 1 or 2 potential rate cuts this year, versus the 3–4 previously expected.
- Sticky inflation and stronger-than-anticipated job numbers are delaying the Fed’s ability to ease.
- The Fed is watching wage growth and consumer spending closely, which are still running above the central bank’s target for easing policy.
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are also facing reduced demand from international buyers, adding upward pressure on mortgage rates. Even if the Fed begins to cut the benchmark rate later this year, lenders may not pass the full savings on to borrowers immediately.
What this means for borrowers: Waiting for 5% rates may not be realistic in 2025. For buyers on the fence, loan officers should help them understand what “buy now and refi later” could look like in this environment.
Mortgage Rates Dip Slightly, Offering a Window of Opportunity for Buyers
According to this week’s industry update, mortgage rates have dipped slightly—averaging 6.64% on the 30-year fixed—offering buyers and refinancers a window of opportunity as we move deeper into spring.
This marks the ninth straight week under 7%, a signal that while rates remain elevated, they are stabilizing in a more favorable range. Experts say:
- Kara Ng of Zillow expects rates to hold in the mid-6s throughout much of 2025, and notes this could bring more hesitant buyers off the sidelines.
- NAR’s Lawrence Yun encourages buyers to act before market pressure builds later this quarter, warning that geopolitical tensions and inflation could reverse recent progress.
- Holden Lewis at NerdWallet highlights volatility as a factor to watch—particularly around employment data and Fed language during upcoming meetings.
Inventory is also beginning to rise slightly in some markets, offering a more balanced playing field for buyers. But most analysts agree: waiting for a dramatic drop in rates could be a missed opportunity. Instead, smart buyers should focus on locking in affordability and strong terms today—and look to refinance later if conditions improve.
Lenders Quietly Reviewing Borrower LinkedIn Profiles for Employment Verification
In a subtle but growing trend, mortgage lenders are beginning to check borrowers’ LinkedIn profiles to verify employment history, cross-reference job titles, and detect red flags that may not appear in traditional documents.
While not a formal part of underwriting, loan officers report that LinkedIn checks are increasingly used as a supplemental verification tool, especially when:
- Pay stubs or tax returns raise questions about consistency.
- A borrower is self-employed or working in gig/freelance arrangements.
- There’s a gap in employment or recent job switch that needs clarification.
According to industry insiders, some lenders have flagged mismatches between loan files and LinkedIn data—such as differing job titles, outdated employment dates, or indications of unemployment. These inconsistencies can slow down approvals or trigger additional documentation requests.
In addition, borrower social media posts—like announcing a new job, job loss, or financial hardship—have the potential to influence perception of borrower stability, even informally.
Takeaway for loan officers: It’s worth advising clients to ensure their LinkedIn profiles are accurate, up-to-date, and aligned with their loan applications—especially for non-W-2 borrowers.
Real Estate-Related Stock Performance (as of April 17, 2025)
- Zillow Group (ZG): $62.15 ▲ 0.5%
- Redfin Corp (RDFN): $10.02 ▲ 1.3%
- Rocket Companies (RKT): $12.76 ▼ 0.3%
- United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC): $4.65 ▼ 0.4%
- Lennar Corp (LEN): $105.22 ▼ 0.7%
- D.R. Horton (DHI): $119.40 ▼ 0.6%
Zillow and Redfin stocks are seeing continued modest gains following their aggressive policy stances on listing transparency. Meanwhile, builders and lenders are trading slightly lower amid ongoing rate and policy uncertainty.
Loan Officer’s Perspective: Thursday – Preapproved and Looking
It’s Thursday, and that means your focus should be on preapproved buyers—the ones actively house hunting and closest to getting under contract.
Here’s how to use today’s news to guide your calls and texts:
- Mortgage Rate Forecasts: Let borrowers know that while rates are down slightly, they’re likely to stay in the 6.5%–7% range for a while. Acting now might secure them better terms than waiting for rate drops that may never come.
- Fed Caution: Educate them on the reality—fewer rate cuts expected, and pricing pressures remain. If they’re “waiting for 5%,” help them adjust strategy.
- Borrower Profile Consistency: Especially for your self-employed clients, mention that lenders are looking more closely at LinkedIn and other professional signals. Encourage them to keep things tidy and up to date.
And of course, keep your energy high and your calls consistent. The pipeline is always built on daily discipline.
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