Investors Are Expecting ‘Way Too Many’ Rate Cuts From the Fed, History Shows
Read the full story → CNBC
Recent analysis from CNBC highlights a growing disconnect between investor expectations and the Federal Reserve’s likely path for rate policy. While markets are pricing in up to four rate cuts over the next year, economists point to historical precedent suggesting a far more cautious Fed trajectory.
Historically, the Fed has only cut rates multiple times in quick succession when faced with significant economic downturns or financial instability. As inflation stabilizes but remains above the 2% target, most analysts expect the Fed to move slowly, possibly cutting rates once or twice at most through mid-2026.
For the housing market, this signals a prolonged period of higher borrowing costs. Market volatility may increase as investors recalibrate expectations. Loan officers should prepare clients for a “higher for longer” environment and emphasize strategic planning over short-term rate speculation.
Loan Officer Insight: Help clients shift focus from Fed forecasts to financing fundamentals. Lock-and-shop strategies, buydowns, and ARMs should stay top-of-mind for affordability.
Realtor Insight: Set realistic expectations with buyers. Rates may not move meaningfully in the short term, so purchasing decisions should be based on need, not rate hopes.
Bipartisan Bill Could Make It Easier to Build ADUs, Tiny Homes
Read the full story → CNBC
A new bipartisan bill introduced in Congress aims to expand housing access by making it easier for homeowners to build accessory dwelling units (ADUs) and tiny homes. The proposed legislation would unlock federal funding and streamline local permitting processes, encouraging municipalities to support small-scale infill development.
ADUs—such as backyard cottages or garage conversions—are viewed as a key tool for increasing density in tight housing markets without large-scale construction. The bill has support from both housing advocates and libertarian-leaning lawmakers who favor deregulation and property rights.
If passed, the bill could provide new opportunities for multigenerational living, rental income, or aging-in-place strategies. For real estate professionals, this means staying ahead of local implementation and helping clients navigate new ADU financing or permitting options.
Loan Officer Insight: Stay updated on ADU lending guidelines. Prepare to offer renovation and construction loan options tied to these accessory builds.
Realtor Insight: Position ADU potential as a value add—especially for investors, multi-gen buyers, or house hackers looking for supplemental income.
Lowest Existing Home Sales in 30 Years Projected by Midyear Housing Forecast
Read the full story → Scotsman Guide
The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) midyear forecast projects just 3.9 million existing home sales in 2025—the lowest annual total since the early 1990s. The culprits: elevated mortgage rates, affordability challenges, and record-low inventory.
Median prices have risen nearly 7% year-over-year, further sidelining first-time buyers. Even seasoned homeowners are holding tight, unwilling to trade low-rate mortgages for today’s higher costs. While new construction has filled some of the gap, it hasn’t been enough to offset the deep freeze in resale activity.
This signals a challenging second half for volume-based businesses. Success will require proactive pipeline management, niche targeting, and creative solutions to help clients compete despite constrained supply.
Loan Officer Insight: Revisit your preapproved pipeline weekly. Use this data to drive urgency and reinforce financing strategies that boost offer strength.
Realtor Insight: Target move-up buyers and investors with strategic listings and financing ideas. Emphasize preparedness in a low-inventory battlefield.
Loan Officer’s Perspective
- Prep clients for a slower Fed path: Set expectations early and explain lock strategies.
- Promote ADU financing as a smart affordability tool—especially for aging parents or income generation.
- Reengage cold leads with urgency around record-low existing home inventory and rising prices.
- Partner with builders on ADU-friendly and entry-level new construction opportunities.
Realtor’s Perspective
- Educate sellers on how ADUs can boost listing appeal and property value.
- Reframe rate conversations—focus on lifestyle goals, not market timing.
- Host buyer webinars on competing in low-inventory environments.
- Look for listings with ADU potential or multigenerational layouts to differentiate.